Arrieta baseball prospectus swing and miss10/13/2023 ![]() Somehow, it was all just a prelude for the destroyer of worlds he’s become in 2015. Hitters couldn’t do anything with his slider (.191 batting average. In 2014, Arrieta grew into one of the best pitchers in the league, posting a strikeout-to-walk rate of better than 4-to-1 and allowing a ludicrously low five homers in 156.2 innings. Those subtle changes have paid off in a big way. And in an MLB Network Radio interview from the same year, Arrieta talked about making sure that his shoulders were level, he wasn’t leaning back toward second base in his windup, and his left leg was moving down before he started shifting his weight toward home plate - all elements he worked on with Bosio. You can see Bosio working with Arrieta on his balance, particularly as he breaks his hands apart and starts to shift forward in his delivery. So, why the improvement? Pavlidis shot a few videos of Arrieta throwing under the watchful eye of Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio. ![]() His pitches began hitting the strike zone more often - especially in parts of the zone that hitters couldn’t touch with any authority. In 2014, Harry Pavlidis detailed Arrieta’s transformation for Baseball Prospectus. But that slider - and Arrieta’s other pitches - became so effective in the first place because of base-level changes to both his mechanics and process. Of course, adding a successful third pitch can help any pitcher get a lot better. Take a look at opposing hitters’ heat map against it last year, and you see an ocean of icy blue - especially for lefties: The pitch had elements of a cutter, and some have argued that it resembles more of a hybrid slider-cutter offering - inelegantly called a “slutter.” Whatever the name, that pitch became Arrieta’s needed third weapon. He also started throwing his slider more, ramping it up to a career-high 29 percent usage rate. After using his four-seam fastball 35 percent of the time in 2011, he used it just over half that often three years later. In 2014, Arrieta’s pitch mix continued to evolve. Arrieta made eight more starts with the Cubs that year, producing four terrific outings (1.01 ERA) and four rough ones (8.05 ERA). He walked three batters and struck out two, but he also allowed just one run on two hits that night, inducing lots of weak contact. In his first start as a Cub, Arrieta leaned far more heavily on his sinker than he ever had before, throwing 48 of them out of 93 pitches in his debut start against the Brewers. On July 2, 2013, the O’s dumped Arrieta on the Cubs (throwing in hard-throwing reliever Pedro Strop and cash to boot) in exchange for journeyman right-hander Scott Feldman and seldom-used catcher Steve Clevenger. He gunned his fastball into the high 90s and owned a heartbreaking curveball that at times would look like one of the game’s best, but he still couldn’t get anyone out at the major league level. His command - 159 walks, or more than four per nine innings - was atrocious. In 358 innings spanning 2010 to 2013, Arrieta delivered a hideous 5.46 ERA. ![]() That moment marked the peak of his Orioles career. When Arrieta started the next season with a 1.85 ERA in 73 innings at Triple-A Norfolk, the O’s called him up to the big leagues. Baseball Prospectus named him the 52nd-best prospect in the game before that 2009 season and no. Between his 20 seasons, spread across the Class A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels, Arrieta tossed 263.2 innings, punched out 268 batters, and allowed just 222 hits. The Orioles picked Arrieta in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, then watched him flourish early in his minor league career. Rob Tringali/MLB Photos/Getty Images Jake Arrieta with the Orioles in 2013.
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